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If Britain were to leave the European Union without a deal, it could have a “significant”, but not “excessive” effect on the Spanish economy, the Bank of Spain said on Tuesday.
A no-deal, disordered Brexit would hit the Spanish economy by 0.82 per cent over the next five years, the bank said in a report which provided estimates of the effects on the Spanish economy under various hypothetical scenarios.
“The results suggest that the cost for the Spanish economy of the eventual exit of Britain from the EU could be significant, depending on the final scenario in which it leaves, but, probably, not excessive,” the bank said.
The bank has warned that Britain’s exit from the EU was one of the main uncertainties affecting Spain’s economy this year due to close economic ties between the two countries and Spain’s high reliance on British tourists.
After two-and-a-half years of negotiations, Britain’s departure from the EU remains uncertain with options including a long postponement, leaving with a deal, a disruptive exit without a deal, or even another referendum.
If Britain were to leave with a deal, the effect would be relatively minor, with a 0.02 per cent point lag over the next five years on Spain’s economy, the Bank of Spain said.
“With only a few days remaining until March 29th, when the Article 50 deadline for withdrawal expires, no consensus plan has emerged yet. Without an alternative plan, a no-deal exit is – excepting postponement – the current default option,” the bank commented.

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